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By Bjorn Fehrm

Thursday, 12, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus has released its forecast for new airliners needed between 2024 and 2044. The forecast says there is a need for 43,420 new aircraft over the next 20 years. It means we need to produce and deliver an average of 2,170 aircraft per year during the period.

During 2024, the world deliveries were 1,200 airliners. To meet the Airbus-predicted demand, production and deliveries of aircraft by 2044 must almost triple.

We examine what this means for the existing OEM structure and the opportunities it presents for new players in the commercial aircraft industry.

Figure 1. The Airbus predicted shift in air travel from Europe and Americas to Asia-Pacific. Source: Airbus.

Summary:

• The growth in air travel and, consequently, the demand for new aircraft is expected to continue unabated over the next 20 years.
• With 1,200 aircraft delivered in 2024 and the need for more than 3,000 aircraft by 2044, there are opportunities for new players to enter the market.